Misusing History

Name the place:

War displaces the dominant economic and ethnic group from power and gives a previously oppressed ethnic group power and political enfranchisement. The invading Army, viewed as foreign occupiers, tries to impose order and rebuild the war-shattered land. The displaced former power group forms militias to resist the invaders and suppress the newly enfranchised ethnic group. Violence simmers for years.

Sound familiar? But, if you said Iraq, you’d be wrong. Try the American South during reconstruction. And how long did it take for “reconstruction” to work? When did the American Civil War really end? You could argue that it took the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to finally bring the Civil War to a close—a century of reconstruction, a century of Phase IV. And we still struggle with race issues to this very day, and in some quarters, the wounds are still raw, and it will always be the “War of Northern Aggression”.

Recently, the President said in a speech before the VFW that "One unmistakable legacy of Vietnam is that the price of America's withdrawal was paid by millions of innocent citizens whose agonies would add to our vocabulary new terms like 'boat people', 're-education camps' and 'killing fields'."

Predictably, his statements generated a storm of controversy on both sides of the political aisle, but nobody has really talked about what not withdrawing from Vietnam would have meant. My assessment is that had we not left Vietnam in the 70’s, we would still be there today, either in a role similar to our presence in South Korea or in a prolonged occupation of the North. Phase IV in Vietnam would have lasted for decades.

It is easy to misuse the lessons of history. In Iraq, the argument is that if we leave now, the country will descend into further violence and chaos. I have no doubt this is true. The killing fields of Southeast Asia may be repeated. However, history also provides more instruction on what staying in Iraq looks like. History tells us that Phase IV lasts forever.

And that is precisely the debate that we are not having. How long can we realistically stay in Iraq? How many lives and how much treasure are we willing to spend? How many decades are we willing to stay? That’s the question nobody is asking in any of the political debates.

Update: In a Fred Kaplan article in Slate Stephen Biddle, a military analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations says that "the strategy in Iraq would require the presence of roughly 100,000 American troops for 20 years—and that, even so, it would be a "long-shot gamble.""

What Happened to the Civilian Reserve Corps?

Earlier this year, the president proposed the creation of a Civilian Reserve Corps. I blogged about it. I've been eagerly awaiting news about its formation...and waiting...and waiting.

I've done some goggling about it, and it seems that Charles Rangel proposed something like this way back in 2005. I guess that he's still waiting...and waiting...and waiting.

I guess all the delays come down to this fact: our military, not our nation, is at war. Therefore, there is no incentive to create bold programs like this, especially at the end of an unpopular president's term. What short-sighted thinking.

According to the United Nation's Population Fund:

The world is undergoing the largest wave of urban growth in history. In 2008, for the first time in history, more than half of the world’s population will be living in towns and cities. By 2030 this number will swell to almost 5 billion, with urban growth concentrated in Africa and Asia. While mega-cities have captured much public attention, most of the new growth will occur in smaller towns and cities, which have fewer resources to respond to the magnitude of the change.

In other words, all future conflicts will revolve around urban areas, and the ability to keep cities up and running resides almost entirely outside of the military. Unpopular president and unpopular war aside, we ought to give some serious thoughts about how we fight and win the next war because its going to look a hell of a lot like Baghdad whether we like it or not.

Also, John Robb has some interesting things to say about life in the urban jungle.